Aberrant RPG - Nova Demographics

[NFVD]

Just for fun I tried to determine how many Novas would be around when the Aberrant War starts in 2049. Join me in this little mental excercise, if you will...

Now the rulebook mentions circa 30-40 eruptions per month as average, than would give us around 420 new Novas per year during the 1998-2008 interval for a total of 4200. canon however states that in 31/12/2007 there are 6000 registered Novas worldwide.

So I have to assume the 30-40 monthly avererage eruption rate refers to public eruptions and the actual number would be nearer to 50. And that would only cover only for the known and registered Novas, so the true average must be even greater. Going either with the 50 a month or 6000 over 10 years figure we get 30,600 Novas around when the UN goes medieval on their collective arses in 2049.

That figure assumes the folowing the ratio of eruptions remains constant or suffers fluctuations than even out in the long term. Pratically every Nova, given the race's life expectancy, will be around barring some unexpected (i.e. violent) demise. It fails to account for secret eruptions (god knows the exact number) and 2nd and 3rd generation novas descended from fertile post-baseline Novas. A Breed Apart mentions that some Quantum 6+ mook will heal the race's sterility about 2030, I do not know if this is taken from canon but if so then the Nova population will experience a surge during 2030-2049 and there will quite a few Nova teens walking about when the sh*te hits the fan.

Canon also says the Aberrant War had actually been going on in a series of conflicts years before the UN signed the de facto declaration. Even if one assumes a Nova casualty rate as horrendous as Soviet Union in WWII which lost little over 10% of its total population in both military and civilian casualties over a 5 year period, the loss in Nova lives would be somewhere between 2,000 and 3,000 at the worst. So considering all these factors the final number of Novas around in 2049 will be well over 30,000, without more data and probably someone more savvy in demographics than I, that number stays open for speculation.

Lets have some more fun and try to determine how many Novas where around at the end of the war. Again this will be the known number of Novas around not couting secret eruptions and births.

Take 28,000 (36,000 minus 8% casualties) for the number of Novas in 2049. The War lasts for 12 years so that gives us 7,200 new Novas for a total of 35,200 in 2061. Let us also assume Nova death toll is equal in percentage to the baseline one (I would bet it is considerably smaller but lets keep this easy). We are never given statistics for deaths in the war, only the phrase "millions are dead" (so from 2,000,000 to 999,999,999). Ok, lets assume half a billion for mathematical sake. That would put the total baseline death toll at roughly 7.5% of current world population, the equivalent to 8 WWII's in less than twice its timespan. I personaly don't think the Aberrant War was this bad but Im just crunching math.

So 7.5% Nova death rate give us 2640 casualties and a total of 32,560 known survivors. IMHO the conclusion is that even in the worst of hipothesis there were well over 30,000 Novas around when they leave earth in 2061 and the Aberrant War did not put any dent in thei rnumbers. Quite simply, baselines could not kill them as fast as they "bred".

Thank god for baseline humanity that China pulled their nuclear stunt out of its arse at the right moment, he? ::sly

Im not even going to try to figure out the number of Novas in the galaxy in the 2120's. ::biggrin im not that crazy.

[BcAugust]

Hmm, first thought is that you're underestimating the death toll by quite a bit. Not for the war, but over time. Especially given both Utopia's goals, plus the way elites are set up and the lack of defenses for most novas as humans move to kill them Or even the known other ways nova's get killed, from the rendering plants(Which I might add, I find more disgusting then even the sterility issue) to the church of Micheal. Or heck, even the known "seperationist" novas, who shouldn't add into the total.

In fact, given how many things are killing Novas by the time 2008 rolls around, it might be the actual rate of Eruption is closer to 60 novas a month. Of course, the upper limit exists as well(without novas repopulating the gene pool in the generation or two after 1998, plus the low rate of the proper sequence as is...). What I'd say is that the death rate increase is much larger, especially amoungst the beginning novas, or peaceful ones. It might even go up to 70-90% of new eruptions.

So, much fewer novas, but the ones left by the time of the Aberrant war are likely averaging Quantum 4 and a whole ton of survivability powers. So, going by the above, you'd have anywhere from 7400 to 3000 "new" novas to add to the 6000. Let's use the higher number. so 13,500 novas at the time. Given that the death rate after that is likely much lower then the baseline death, I'd guesstimate that about 12,000 novas went into space.

[Alex Green]

Take 28,000 (36,000 minus 8% casualties) for the number of Novas in 2049.

Some back of the hand calculations say that the number of elite deaths by 2010 (when AB:Elites came out) was something like 2000 novas. Assuming 10K novas, that's either 20% (10-2) or 16% (12-2).

I get that from the number of nova deaths needed to fill out the Elite Ranks. If everyone in the top 100 has killed 4 novas, then the math gets pretty grim, especially when you consider the number of novas who drop out.

Further, that's just from Elite violence. As of 2010 it's pretty rare for novas to die from taint... And yes, I know mostly people don't die from taint (although that nova in the ST:Screen who blew up and hurt ZUM might be an exception) but in AB:Directive Sloppy Joe had apparently gotten his next dot of taint and gone nuts enough that he was going to have to be put down. That Biomanip in AB:WWI is the same story, ditto a few others. Over the years it's going to get worse.

We are also assuming that the eruption rate stays constant. It might go down.

[BlueNinja]

I was under the impression that after 1998, the eruption rate jumped up to around 60 a month (public, that is) and then dwindled slowly each year until there were few new eruptions around the time of the Aberrant War. This is only my impression though.

[Alex Green]

I think cannon says there was a big drop in eruptions after a certain (unnamed... but said by several developers to be Mal) left the planet.

[metaphysician]

Yeah. I think the eruption rate actually climbs til then. Makes sense after all; despite a nigh-total lack of reproduction, and the afforementioned high casualty rates, the nova population consistently goes up over the years.

[NFVD]

Yes, I think I recall someone mentioning baseline soldiers erupting in the stress of battle during the Aberrant War. I believe canonicaly the eruption rate only drops after the Nova Exodus.

I wasn't aware the Elites book had casualty stats. Even with these new figures it's funny that while baselines "die by the millions" the Nova population is still greater in 2061 than in 2008. If their objective was to eliminate them, the UN was doing a pretty bad job until the chinese decided to pull the nuclear card.

It's too bad the game line was canceled before we got to know more information about post-2015 and the Aberrant War. I mean if a world with just known 6000 Novas can be so dynamic imagine having at least twice that number and a higher Quantum average in the overall populace.

[Blue Thunder]

You're assuming that novas don't fight other novas, even outside of elite warfare. There are a lot of nova factions out there, and they don't all get along.

Also remember that most novas are independants, not in a group. They'll likely clash with one another, and want to eliminate one another. I suspect that the biggest threat to nova existence is that of other novas. I'm thinking most nova deaths that occur pre-Aberrant War are from nova-vs-nova battles.

Also, there is nothing supporting a rise in the number of eruptions. In AsAs it is said that the q-wave from 1998 may have been "renewed" a few times during the Nova Age, but it doesn't happen by 2015. A "renewal" of the q-wave could account for the increase in starting Q and T levels of characters that the APG mentions happening in the 2030s (or was it the 2020s?). It might account for an increase in eruptions for a short while, but the wave would die down after a while. The Hammersmith wave died down, the Venezuelan wave eventually dies down, there's no reason this wave would do the total opposite. IMO, Mal simply keeps the wave up, merely from his presence, but he doesn't constnatly increase the wave's strength.

If there was a constant rise in eruption rates, then when you play Trinity, you'd be playing 2nd Gen novas.

[Alex Green]

Somewhere down the line the Earth got shifted from a low taint to a high taint environment.

Ways that could happen:

1) Mal botched his roll. Hammersmith's stuff only lasts about a decade or two. So he renewed it, and blew it. This also explains somewhat why he left the Earth.

2) Wycroft. He's a Q8 nova who presumably controls taint.

3) Something or someone else. Maybe lots of tainted novas create more tainted novas. Whatever.

But it happened, and when it did it's possible that lots of existing novas got an extra dot or two in taint because the rules change (i.e. you get taint with lower levels of quantum). Many novas will get aberrations, many novas who already have some aberrations will go mad. Alternatively, high taint might mean only newly erupted novas get more taint, but this results in the same thing long term.

However, IMHO more taint equals less human equals less able to have children. Being your own species sucks that way.

[SkyLion]

If there was a constant rise in eruption rates, then when you play Trinity, you'd be playing 2nd Gen novas.

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Oohh!!! Can we?? Can we?? I've always wanted to play an Aberrant game set in the Trinity Era...

[NFVD]

Oohh!!! Can we?? Can we?? I've always wanted to play an Aberrant game set in the Trinity Era...

That's easy SkyLion, just take a leaf out of A Breed Apart and have a group of circa 2030's 2ndGen Novas be transported to the future a la Days of a Future past. Instead of mutants being hunted by Sentinels you have Novas being hunted by Psions. You can have a blast trying to find a way to get back home and attempt to prevent this awful future from ever happening. ::laugh

[SkyLion]

That's easy SkyLion, just take a leaf out of A Breed Apart and have a group of circa 2030's 2ndGen Novas be transported to the future a la Days of a Future past. Instead of mutants being hunted by Sentinels you have Novas being hunted by Psions. You can have a blast trying to find a way to get back home and attempt to prevent this awful future from ever happening. ::laugh

,,

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I was hoping for a more Edenite twist, or maybe even one of Nippon's undercover Novas.

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I actually plan to have my current Eon Nova PCs be a part of forming Eden, assuming they survive IC.

[Blue Thunder]

...assuming they survive IC.

LAWLZ! Like that'll happen! Hah!

[NFVD]

I was hoping for a more Edenite twist, or maybe even one of Nippon's undercover Novas.

,,

I actually plan to have my current Eon Nova PCs be a part of forming Eden, assuming they survive IC.

What about a sleeper cell of Eden-born 2nd Gen Novas operating on earth previous to Upeo Wa Macho contact?

Playing 2nd Gen secret Nippon spy novas would be fun also.

Just be sure to max that Dormancy and Cipher! ::biggrin

[Blue Thunder]

Personally, I think the best option for playing novas in trinity is to play Earth baselines that erupt after the Venezuelan Phenomenon. That way their powers are new, and they're still familiar with the world. It would be fun to have the characters hiding from psions and such all the time, while still trying to find a place in society and even fight Aberrants.

[SkyLion]

Personally, I think the best option for playing novas in trinity is to play Earth baselines that erupt after the Venezuelan Phenomenon. That way their powers are new, and they're still familiar with the world. It would be fun to have the characters hiding from psions and such all the time, while still trying to find a place in society and even fight Aberrants.

,,

Dude! Sounds like you have your next Campaign for after NOLK...

[NFVD]

Personally, I think the best option for playing novas in trinity is to play Earth baselines that erupt after the Venezuelan Phenomenon. That way their powers are new, and they're still familiar with the world. It would be fun to have the characters hiding from psions and such all the time, while still trying to find a place in society and even fight Aberrants.

Man! That would be a hard, dark, gritty chronicle. ::devil

Imagine being turned into what all you life you were led to believe is the epitome of evil. Now everyone hates you and you can trust no one.

And you've got some nice hefty Taint out the bargain! how could life get any better than this? ::laugh

I'd play this in a second. It's been so long since I roleplayed a doooooomed character...I miss it.

[Blue Thunder]

Man! That would be a hard, dark, gritty chronicle.

The only kind I'm good at ^^