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Aberrant RPG - Nova Numbers


Jager

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I am curious to see what the world population of novas is in games.

As an example, using the book, there are 4800 novas at the start of 2007 and 6000 by the start of 2008.

Since this forum attempts at times to mimic a setting of 2013, how many novas would there be?

Here are some numbers(end of year)

1998 - 600 (start)

1999 - 1350 (increase of 750 novas or 125%)

2000 - 1800 (increase of 450 novas or 33%)

2001 - 2100 (increase of 300 novas or 17%)

2002 - 2500 (increase of 400 novas or 19%)

2003 - 2800 (increase of 300 novas or 12%)

2004 - 3000 (increase of 200 novas or 07%)

2005 - 3500 (increase of 500 novas or 17%)

2006 - 4800 (increase of 1300 novas or 37%)

2007 - 6000 (increase of 1200 novas or 25%)

About a 21% increase per year on average (discounting year one growth). That gives you 15,562 novas at the start of 2013.

Okay, let's say the Teragen numbers only 60 members in 2008. That would give them 156 by the start of 2013, which I would consider conservative, as older novas are more attracted (burned out, taint-ridden, or just more advanced) to the ideals of Teras.

Even if Utopia can keep up with recruiting (snatching a number out of thin air) 20% of the nova population, that give them over 4000 novas by the same date. Let's say only 10% of those are 'combat-capable'. That is an army of 400 novas.

By the way, what are the other 11,000 novas doing? Something to think about, anyway.

Yes, that assumes the quantum well doesn't start drying up. With that, fewer and fewer novas erupt. Eventually, thanks to Utopian sterilization and the novas propensity to kill one another, the numbers could actually decline.

Would that start happening by 2013?

We also know (those of us who read too much) that by 2008, both Utopia and the Teragen have second-generation babies. Not many, but there are some. In five more years, what are we looking at?

In 2008, there are 6 (?) novas with Q:6. How many by 2013 and what does that mean for the world?

Enough for tonight. Even Jager's must sleep eventually.

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Well, in 2009 there are there are 5-8 novas with a q of 6+ one being 8, and another two being 7. i would say that at 210 that number gets a whole lot bigger.

I say this because at around 2000 there could be roughly let's say 400 novas at q of 4-5.And given ten years i would think that a large part of those novas would be gaining one q for around every 10 years, like the player guide says.So around 2013 I could se upwards of 100.Now this doesn't mean you have 100 novas with powers to level cities. But you have novas who getting to the point where a large number of them are becoming gods.

I would say that at least 10% of any nova over 10 years old would have a q5+ plus.So even if one of ten of those has a q6+. You would have 25.But I would think that number would be somewhat higher.

Now I just repeated myself to show that i have a few points of view on how to get the same thing.

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Quote:
Jager:
2007 - 6000 (increase of 1200 novas or 25%)

About a 21% increase per year on average (discounting year one growth). That gives you 15,562 novas at the start of 2013.
And by 2055, there are 56.5 Million, and by 2035 (20 years earlier) there were 1.25 Million.

The later number is interesting because over a 20 year period, perhaps 10% of them would get Q6+, and more importantly, Mastery.

An army of 125,000 Novas with mastery would be really hard to beat, even with nukes.

If we assume that 10% of the novas in 2015 got to Q8, then we have 28 Divis Mal's running around. Considering the level of taint of a Q8, I don't think the planet would survive this.

Conclusion: The number of Novas being created will go down. Perhaps after 2012 the number of eruptions is only that of population replacement.
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The definite feel of the game is that novas are not the next evolutionary step. At some point an time, just like in Adventure, the energies that cause novas to erupt ebb away. Now, what the maximum number of novas is, is still in question.

I don't see a world with even a million novas. One with 50,000 is nightmarish enough.

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Novas might be the next evolutionary step. Mal jumpstarted the massive quantum boom thousands of years before it should have happened naturally, if ever. A couple of millennia from now mankind may have been more ready mentally and ethically to handle direct quantum manipulation.

Some other thoughts...

,,
  • Utopia doesn't know about all novas. I'd guess 10% slip through the cracks by accident or design but others put the number as high as one quarter of the known population.
  • Taint isn't a good indicator for what the quantum boom is doing just because the choice to accept taint starts looking a whole lot more attractive when you're talking about Quantum 6 plus or Quantum Powers of 4 and beyond.
  • The quantum boom seems to crest around 2030 - 2045 (Godhood by favor from the players guide), so what's happening 1998 - 2013 is just the beginning.
  • The big change to the quantum boom probably happens in 2055(?) when Mal leaves the planet. Eruptions drop off (a lot) and Taint seems more prevalent. Whether the Q-wave is returning to normal or going negative (Taint) probably depends on whether you like classic Trinity or not.
  • Mastery is not (necessarily) a given. Its available in the game but how many novas would bother to put in the effort needed to focus on some a particular ability? Why would they feel the need when they outperform 99% of the population?
  • Just as a plot hook for a game, what happens to all of the really powerful novas by the time of the Exodus of Earth? Only Mal and Pax are remembered....

Just a couple of comments to consider...

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In my opinion, the estimation of Q6 Novas is off too. Sure, from a statical point of view a certain portion of the Nova population should hit Q6 every year, but I don't think it should be judged by that. Hitting Quantum 6 is like raising a character's power by an order of magnitude. I mean, look at how the rules of the game change after you hit Quantum 6+. You can get multiple Extras, Mastery, and the powers themselves are incredibly powerful.

It seems to me that it takes a major effort on the part of any character to even achieve a Quantum score of 6 let alone take full advantage of it. I don't think Novas should just wake up one morning and go "Oh gee, now I can move planets!"

Perhaps dividing the statistical number of Q6+ Novas by 2 or even 4 would be a more accurate representation?

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Quote:
Cody:
Mastery is not (necessarily) a given. Its available in the game but how many novas would bother to put in the effort needed to focus on some a particular ability? Why would they feel the need when they outperform 99% of the population?...
By 99% I take it you are talking about baselines. I think the general answer is because a nova's threats are generally going to come from other novas.

If you are in the Teragen, why wouldn't you get Mastery? Heck, if you were in the XWF, why wouldn't you? By the way, Mastery is pretty cheap. The real problem is getting a Q of 6+ (and the taint side effects).

The PC's don't know about the taint rules. Most of them only have a few powers, which they use all or most of the time. WW's characters seem to be built around the idea that characters specialize and develope the few powers they have to many dots.

Actually, when I look at known Q5 novas who would seem to be able to (in theme) move up to mastery and Q6 without problems, one name comes to mind.

Totentanz. eek
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-.-

Never forget, there's some novas, who aren't in that league that could be just as dangerous. I do know a few people who had made 50pt <5q novas that are quite nasty in their own right.

The personal iew that I have is that the >Q6 gang is a small and elite club. I'd wager fat yen that even before the exodus, that there were only 500 >Q6 Novas. The rest were in the bell curve of Q3-5.

Then again, I'm not an expert in Aberrant canon, that I'm not.

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Quote:
Originally posted by David 'Dr. Troll' Smith:
By 99% I take it you are talking about baselines. I think the general answer is because a nova's threats are generally going to come from other novas.
Sure.

And a nova like Doctor Smith has a reason to expand on what he can, to develop and refine it, but somebody less... aggression oriented... isn't going to see things the same way. The chef with quantum enhanced perceptions that loves his beautiful baseline wife comes to mind here. So does the academic that finds a particular field of physics his lifes work and doesn't have much use for "nigh invulnerability" or quantum blasts. Not everybody is a soldier or an adventurer by trade or nature. The point isn't that they can't do it, simply that they won't bother.

By the way, how do you go from pointing out Taint mechanics are unknown to characters then jump to mastery costing so little... smile

Look at it on a basic level. How many people just refuse to learn to draw, are easily discouraged by lack of initial success or just won't pick up a pencil and even try? Some have talent, some have drive but then there's the rest of us... wink
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  • 2 weeks later...

I like to think of Quantum 6+ being developed only by those with exceptional drive and dedication. Not everyone will attain it, even with centuries to develop. Going up even to Quantum 4-5 means that you've tapped the ability to greatly affect your environment, reaching into weather, space and even time to a finite degree. Quantum 6 is where I start to think of Novas as lesser deities than paranormal beings.

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I've only read the three core books and skimmed a few of the others but it seems to me that as far as numbers of novas go you would start to see a drop of sometime before the abberant war. In adventure they state that Mal initiatied a new "Hammersmith" type effect that was focused primarily in the "quantum resonance" field. As opposed to the more dispersed effects of the original. Adventure also states that the effect only lasted a few decades before fading. Taking into account that most Novas were sterilized before the abberant war their would very little population replacment.

As for Q6 Novas one would think that if their had been more of them around before or during the abberant war the war would have gone very differently. Q7+ Novas even up to the Trinity timeline must have been even more rare, I mean have you seen som of these powers. Its a good bet that even Mal didnt have any of these by the time of the exodus, or he could have erupted the whole planet.

Playing devils advocate it is also possible that many novas had Q6+ even early on but only experienced this as an increased level of raw power and simply never discovered some of the really big powers. Novas were human before the eruption and how many people ever really put serious effort into trying to create an entire new universe, other than on paper.

These are just my opinions and wild speculations, I tend to run games more with the second viewpoint.

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Quote:
Originally posted by Ghetto Funk Baby:
Mal has some of those powers at the latest 2009.And around six other novas have Q6 powers...
Bah. According to the 'writeup' of Mal, he has ALL of the powers. He's a frickin' god.
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  • 3 months later...

My question deals with sustainability in your average campaign.

Say I'm setting a story in Chicago. Chicago could have 3-4 million odd people in it circa 2008 in the Aberrant world. On pure statistics, doesn't that leave only 3 nova's to naturally occur in the population?

Say you scale it up becuase it's a big city. Maybe there are more opportunities for triggers or what have you. Even if you triple that, you only get about 10 novas.

If you distribute the supposed 6000 novas in 2008 through the six continents where Novas probably live, you get 1000 on each continent, give or take. If you've got 1000+/- in North America, what is the population breakdown? Is it close to 100 novas in the ten biggest US cities, or more like 50 novas in the twenty biggest US cities?

What kind of rough estimates do you run with?

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As for Q6 Novas one would think that if their had been more of them around before or during the abberant war the war would have gone very differently.

Except that Novas fought on all sides of the war (this has been supressed from history). Pax is the obvious example, but there are others. Even the lady who destroyed Florida was on the side of angels, the effect just got out of hand (I think she was with PU).

RE: Nova numbers.

The problem with saying that Chicago or New York only have a hand full of Novas is that these cities do have opportunities. Meaning that Joe Hayseed who erupts out in the country is likely going to get a job that puts him in a big city. The big cities have big industry, big pollitics, and can affort defenders of the city.

After a while, you will have novas moving to the big city to be around other novas.

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1. Don't forget to use the population of the greater meto area. That's usualy quite a bit higher than just the population of the city itself. According to the Census the population of the Greater Chicago Metro Area is 8065633.

2. Feel free to assume that the stats for actual or reported novas are low meaning that there are more novas than PU is reporting (or high if you want to make them rare).

That gives you anywhere from 7 to 12 natural 'Chicago' novas. Some may have moved on & others fromd different areas might have moved in.

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Quote:
Originally posted by SimianLogic:
My question deals with sustainability in your average campaign.

Say I'm setting a story in Chicago. Chicago could have 3-4 million odd people in it circa 2008 in the Aberrant world. On pure statistics, doesn't that leave only 3 nova's to naturally occur in the population?
There's your problem right there - On average, yes, that's the case. Statistically, however, there's a considerable amount of variation that can occur within a given population. I'm not going to run the figures exactly out, but a given city of 3 million would, purely by numbers, have a nova population that could realistically be between 0 and 6. This is naturally born novas, BTW.

We use averages to make life easier, but you shouldn't straightjacket yourself with them. The average, in general, should be thought of as a helpful myth, because in most statistical exercises, you're not dealing with a population that's perfectly average. The actual probability of such a population is actually pretty damn close to 0 (continuous probability distribution work like that...)

Quote:
Originally posted by SimianLogic:
If you distribute the supposed 6000 novas in 2008 through the six continents where Novas probably live, you get 1000 on each continent, give or take. If you've got 1000+/- in North America, what is the population breakdown? Is it close to 100 novas in the ten biggest US cities, or more like 50 novas in the twenty biggest US cities?
Remember to take Migrational figures into account. In general, novas will flock to large cities. In any given city with a decent nova community, the vast majority of novas will not be city-native. What reasons are there for a newly-erupted nova to stay back in their backwater town in the bible-belt? In general, very few. Novas move a lot, and very few stay in their native city, so cities like Los Angeles will have an incredibly disproportionate amount of novas, as will Bollywood, as will any city with a large Rashoud Facility (this is, of course, at any given time - novas will move around). Any decent-sized Nova community is probably has a majority of expatriate novas from other countries, or at the very least, novas from all over the country/continent.

As for me personally? I don't tend to think about it that much when I'm running. If the question comes up, I usually take into account any particular significances that a city possesses. City size isn't usually a factor when I'm thinking about it. Novas don't stand still!
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Another factor is that many novas from China leave their country and are then paid to work for American firms.

PhD's (in real life) work similarly. Many foreign students come to the U.S. to get a PhD with the intent of going back home. And then when "back home" doesn't work out, or they are offered more money/lifestyle in the U.S., they don't leave.

It's called "Brain Drain".

I see no reason why there wouldn't be a "Nova" drain (and the blurb about Australia comments on this in one of the Abby books).

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Asia Ascendant, Chapter 2:

"Where the Hammersmith event took a few years to wind down, Donighal's effect lasted for decades. Some scholars of the Trinity era speculate that he and/ or others renewed it from time to time; at this point it's impossible to say for sure, since nobody in a position to discuss workings of Teragen inner councils remains both alive and available for examination in the 2120s."

Pretty vague, don't know if that helps anyone's thinking.

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Of course the Terats are wary of the Æon Society. The Æon Society was/is the primary funding point for Project Utopia. Also, the Æon Society's primary goal is the betterment of all of mankind. Project Utopia is an expression of that, using novas to further those aims, something the Terats feel is a most heinous crime.

Well, that, and Mal was once on the Æon Society. Sometime during WWII, Mal attempted some sort of action (what it is has not been illuminated) that results in the Æon Society battling him, that in turn results in the death of one of Annabelle Lea Newfield, one of the founding members of the Society.

Mal and the Society go back. Waaaaay back. Read Adventure! for further details...

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"I wonder why that was? Could it be that the Teragen is wary of the Aeon Society?"

Well, this is Trinity era. All the old Terats are either dead or exiled from Earth. (Or, possibly, in hiding on Earth.)

"Read Adventure! for further details..."

And if you do, remember that Divis Mal's real name is Michael Donighal, aka Dr. Primoris.

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  • 4 months later...
Quote:
Originally posted by Cody:
[*]Utopia doesn't know about all novas. I'd guess 10% slip through the cracks by accident or design but others put the number as high as one quarter of the known population. [*] The big change to the quantum boom probably happens in 2055(?) when Mal leaves the planet. Eruptions drop off (a lot) and Taint seems more prevalent. Whether the Q-wave is returning to normal or going negative (Taint) probably depends on whether you like classic Trinity or not. [*] Mastery is not (necessarily) a given. Its available in the game but how many novas would bother to put in the effort needed to focus on some a particular ability? Why would they feel the need when they outperform 99% of the population?
Just a couple of comments to consider...
[*] There is at least 1 highly placed Nova that Utopia does not know about - Asa Karadakas AKA "Renaissance Man" from Expose: Aberrants [*] Have to wonder that since Mal started the Nova boom, if he also inhibited Taint since it went up when he left? [*] Seems to me that part of the nature of Novas is to become better at what they do. Some will push and push until Taint slows them down, others will slowly but surely grow into Mastery. To do otherwise might be in the opposite direction, loose control over their abilities. It is like playing a favorite Video game. You get a little better each time you play. I don't mean one that you are all out obsessed with, just one that you play often enough to notice progress. Some times you screw up, most of the time you get farther and farther.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Jager:
By the way, what are the other 11,000 novas doing? Something to think about, anyway.

We also know (those of us who read too much) that by 2008, both Utopia and the Teragen have second-generation babies. Not many, but there are some. In five more years, what are we looking at?

Enough for tonight. Even Jager's must sleep eventually.
Maybe they are Nova Chefs wink or Dr.s, dancers, etc. since one of the causes of erruption is stress.

There is mention of second-gen Novas not having Nodes and Taint. I wonder how that would work in game mechanics?

Shhhhh! Don't wake the sleeping Jager...he's so cute when he's sleeping smile
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There is mention of two novas not having nodes.These two novas were generically engineered.

Most second geners are not old enough to have nodes. As such it is still unknown if nova bread true.It has been stated that second-gen novas, as in novas who had nova parents were more stable, than their parents, but they still have nodes.It is just more a part of them.

I started to think it is more to do with the fact that quantum acts something like eltrisaty.I say this only so far as that as the levels of Quantum in one area raises nodes tend to flow that way.We know this why there are so few ofthe psi,and inspired in the nova age.But just maybe it is also why there is so much tain in the trinty age. With the removal, of nearly every nova with enough power to infulance a qauntum sphere the size of earth, let alone a solar system you have novas who have no "lightening rod" so to speak, and also the amount of sub-quntum is preventing any nova from gain enough control to "clean" the area.

I think even Mal thinks taint is bad. I think Mal, is just smart enough to spin it around to make the teragen think taint is good, and then give the way with dealing with taint.That there forms a deep bond within the group, and bingo, you have on the spot "nationlizm" in a group of people who would have sooner killed each other than talk to each other.It also helps that some of them could kill large part of worlds, and if given time, could do nearly anything.

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Since so much of how a Nova is created is subconscious, it stands to reason that the remaining Novas would subconsciously affect the Quantum state of the planet. "They left me. I am such a loser even other novas don't want me." Self loathing can only be turned inward for so long before there is an outward effect of sorts.

When you can manipulate Quantum states, that will take much less time to see the outcome.

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